I wrote the memo to `fy2026_scenario_memo.md`.

| | Base | Upside | Downside |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Revenue | $11.20M | $11.94M | $10.44M |
| Gross profit | $2.97M | $3.17M | $2.69M |
| Operating income | $303K (2.7%) | $501K (4.2%) | $(6)K |
| Change vs Base | n/a | +$197K | $(309)K |

I calculated each figure from the drivers in the CSV:
- **Revenue:** customers × revenue per customer.
- **Gross profit:** revenue × gross margin %.
- **Operating income:** gross profit minus operating costs, which are headcount × cost per head plus other opex.

The Downside is mainly a volume problem. Losing three customers removes about $203K of gross profit at Base margin. The margin squeeze costs another $78K, and the fuel surcharge adds $28K of opex.

The file has only annual drivers, so I applied the January, March and credit-watch events at full-year value. If any of them take effect partway through the year, the in-year impact would be smaller. The memo says this and also suggests checking that the drivers still match the current outlook, since the year is already underway.