I wrote the memo to `fy2026_scenario_memo.md`.

**Bottom line:** FY2026 operating income is **$303K in Base** (2.7% margin), **$501K in Upside** and **–$6K in Downside**, which is essentially breakeven.

- **Upside (+$197K):** two new Enterprise customers add $135K and the 2% price increase adds $62K.
- **Downside (–$309K):** losing the three credit-watch accounts costs $203K, the 75 bp gross-margin squeeze from the vendor cost increase costs $78K, and higher fuel surcharges cost $28K.
- **Sensitivities:** each customer is worth about $68K of operating income, so losing about 4.5 customers takes Base to zero. Each 10 bp of gross margin is worth about $11K, and Base breaks even at a 23.84% margin.

I worked out the figures myself from the drivers in the CSV: revenue is customers × revenue per customer, and operating income is gross profit minus people cost minus other opex. The bridges add up exactly to the scenario differences.

Two things to check before this goes out:
- **Event timing:** the assumptions refer to January and March events, and it's now October 2026. If FY2026 has already started, some of these should probably be actuals rather than scenarios. The file doesn't say when the fiscal year starts.
- **Upside pricing:** the Upside applies the higher price to the two new customers for a full year. If they were priced separately or start partway through the year, the Upside is overstated.