I wrote the FY2026 scenario memo. The script ran cleanly, and every scenario's driver-by-driver walk adds up to its EBITDA.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) |

**What drives the difference**
- **Upside:** Two more customers (46 instead of 44) add $135K, because two Enterprise proposals close in January. A price increase that holds with no volume loss adds $62K.
- **Downside:**
  - Losing three credit-watch accounts (41 customers instead of 44) costs ($203K).
  - A March vendor cost increase that isn't passed through cuts gross margin from 26.6% to 25.8%, costing ($78K).
  - Higher carrier fuel surcharges add ($28K) to other opex.
- Headcount and cost per head don't change in any scenario.

**Recommendation:** The memo plans to Base. It lists the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside. It also names two things to prepare now: a pass-through plan for the vendor cost increase and an exposure review of the credit-watch accounts.

Every figure is copied from the script output. The source is `scenarios_fy2026.csv` (18 rows).

Files are in `/tmp/spb-scenario-memo-fy26-claude-386e20y3/output/`:
- `scenario-memo.md`
- `scenarios.json`