I wrote the FY2026 scenario memo. The script ran cleanly, and every scenario's walk adds up to its EBITDA.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K (65.1%) |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) |

**What drives the difference**
- **Upside:** Active customers go from 44 to 46, worth $135K. The assumption is that two Enterprise proposals close in January. Revenue per customer rises to 259,626.82, worth $62K. The assumption is that the January price increase holds with no volume loss.
- **Downside:** Active customers fall from 44 to 41, worth ($203K), because three credit-watch accounts are lost. Gross margin slips from 26.6% to 25.8%, worth ($78K), because the March vendor cost increase isn't passed through. Other opex rises to $974K, worth ($28K), because carrier fuel surcharges rise.
- **Held at Base in both cases:** Headcount and cost per head.

The memo recommends planning to Base. It names the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside, and the actions to prepare now: a pass-through plan for the March vendor cost increase and a collections review of the three credit-watch accounts.

Files are in `output/`:
- `scenario-memo.md`
- `scenarios.json`