## FY2025 Reforecast Accuracy Review

Your reforecasts performed well overall, with marked improvement as months closed. Here's how they stacked up:

### Headline Accuracy

| Version | Revenue Variance | Monthly Accuracy (MAPE) | Assessment |
|---------|------------------|------------------------|------------|
| **9+3** (9 months closed) | +0.0% | 0.2% | Excellent |
| **6+6** (6 months closed) | +1.4% | 1.4% | Very good |
| **3+9** (3 months closed) | +1.6% | 2.5% | Good |
| **Budget** (all forecast) | +3.2% | 3.7% | Acceptable |

**Key takeaway:** The 9+3 reforecast was nearly perfect—$2.8k variance on $11.4B annual revenue is negligible. Operating expense forecasting was consistently tight across all versions (max 0.5% variance).

### Where Budget Forecast Missed

The initial budget struggled in two periods:
- **March** ($122k or 13.7% revenue shortfall): Likely a seasonal adjustment or event that wasn't baked into the annual budget
- **Jul-Aug** (15% and 10.7% overforecasts): Suggests summer seasonality wasn't modeled correctly in the budget

The 3+9 reforecast caught the March issue (actual vs forecast data) but then similarly overestimated July-August, suggesting a pattern in your business that reforecasts should better capture.

### Operating Expense Performance

Opex forecasting was remarkably stable—all versions held within ±0.5% of actual. Even the Budget's full-year $649 miss ($10.2M actual vs $10.2M forecast) is noise on a $10M+ base. Your expense control was better than revenue visibility.

### Recommendation

For next year, flag March and July-August in your planning calendar as historically volatile. The 9+3 pattern validates that closed months anchor forecasts well—if monthly closings typically complete by mid-month-plus-9, you'd be hitting this accuracy level consistently.