I wrote the memo to `scenario_memo_fy2026.md`. I calculated the figures by hand from the CSV and didn't run them through code. I did check that the Downside gap breaks down into its three drivers and adds up to the total.

| | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Revenue | $10.44M | $11.20M | $11.94M |
| Operating income | −$6K | $303K | $501K |

- **Upside:** Operating income is $197K above Base. This comes from two Enterprise wins and a price increase that holds with no volume loss.
- **Downside:** Operating income is $309K below Base, which is roughly breakeven. Losing three accounts costs about $203K, the March vendor cost increase about $78K, and fuel surcharges about $28K.

Operating income is gross profit less personnel (headcount × cost per head) less other opex. The CSV has no explicit formula, so I assumed it.

The memo also has a summary table and short observations on how fixed the cost base is and how thin the Downside margin is.