Analyzing the forecast changes:

## Key Differences Between Prior and Current

**Active Customers:** Decreased 46 → 44 (-2, -4.3%)  
**Gross Margin %:** Improved 26.20% → 26.55% (+35 bps)  
**Headcount:** Increased from 23 to 24 starting in April  
**Revenue/customer, cost/head, other OpEx:** Unchanged

## EBITDA Impact

The changes create offsetting effects:

| Component | Impact |
|-----------|--------|
| Customer loss (-2) | **Negative** — ~$44-48K monthly revenue reduction |
| Margin expansion (+35 bps) | **Positive** — ~$9-14K monthly gross profit improvement |
| New headcount (Apr onward) | **Negative** — $6,050/month OpEx increase |

**Net Result:** EBITDA declines across the forecast. Q1 EBITDA drops ~$8.2K/month; Q2-Q4 decline further by ~$13.7K/month due to the headcount addition.

## Forecast Change Note

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**FY2026 Forecast Revision – October 2026**

The current forecast reflects three material changes from our prior outlook:

1. **Customer Attrition** — Active customer base revised down 2 units (46→44) due to [reason: churn/competitive loss/budget cuts]. This reduces monthly revenue by approximately $44–48K depending on seasonal pricing patterns.

2. **Gross Margin Expansion** — Improved realization of 35 basis points (26.20%→26.55%), driven by [reason: product mix shift/pricing actions/cost optimization]. This partially mitigates the revenue impact, adding back ~$9–14K in monthly gross profit.

3. **Headcount Scaling** — Addition of 1 FTE beginning April 2026 (likely [role: engineering/ops/sales]) to support [strategic initiative: product roadmap/customer success/scaling operations]. This increases monthly OpEx by $6,050 from April forward.

**Overall Outcome:** Despite margin improvement, EBITDA declines by $8–14K monthly due to the combination of customer loss and headcount investment. The forecast assumes [assumption: stabilization of customer base after Q1 / payoff from new headcount in H2 / cost recovery through gross margin gains].

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Would you like me to refine this with specific reasons for the customer loss or headcount addition?