# FY2026 Forecast Change Note: Prior vs Current

**Headline:** FY2026 EBITDA falls by **$148.6K (‑32.9%)**, from $451.9K to $303.2K. Revenue falls 4.3%, and a headcount increase adds cost on top of that.

## What changed
Three drivers changed. Everything else (revenue per customer, cost per head, other opex) is identical in every month.

| Driver | Prior | Current | Applies to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active customers | 46 | 44 | All 12 months |
| Gross margin % | 26.20% | 26.55% (+35 bps) | All 12 months |
| Headcount | 23 | 24 | Apr–Dec (9 months) |

## P&L impact (full year)
| | Prior | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11,708.7K | $11,199.6K | ‑$509.1K (‑4.3%) |
| Gross profit | $3,067.7K | $2,973.5K | ‑$94.2K |
| Payroll (headcount × cost per head) | $1,669.8K | $1,724.3K | +$54.5K |
| Other opex | $946.0K | $946.0K | 0 |
| **EBITDA** | **$451.9K** | **$303.2K** | **‑$148.6K** |

## EBITDA bridge
| Driver | EBITDA impact |
|---|---|
| Two fewer active customers (46 → 44), valued at prior margin | ‑$133.4K |
| Gross margin +35 bps, on the lower revenue base | +$39.2K |
| One added head from April (9 × $6,050) | ‑$54.5K |
| **Total** | **‑$148.6K** |

## Why EBITDA moved
- **Customer loss is the main cause.** It accounts for about 90% of the decline. Losing 2 of 46 customers (‑4.3%) removes roughly $509K of revenue, and about $133K of gross profit at the prior margin.
- **The margin gain only partly offsets it.** The extra 35 bps recovers about $39K, roughly 30% of the volume loss.
- **The extra head is a fixed cost.** The 24th head from April costs $54.5K and is not tied to the lower customer count. Revenue per head is falling while payroll rises.
- **Other opex is unchanged.** That includes the May spike to $104.1K, which is the same in both versions.

## Caveats and questions for the owners
- **EBITDA formula.** The file has no EBITDA line. I calculated it as customers × revenue per customer × gross margin % − headcount × cost per head − other opex. Please confirm this matches the finance definition.
- **Revenue per customer was not updated.** Revenue per customer is identical in both versions, even though the 2 customers lost may have been above or below average. If they were larger accounts, the revenue impact is understated.
- **Customer count is flat all year.** Both versions hold customers at a flat 44 or 46 for 12 months. That suggests no month-by-month churn or new-logo timing is modelled. The change was applied from January, which looks like a full-year reset rather than a mid-year event. Confirm whether that is intended.
- **Reasons are not in the data.** The file shows what changed, not why. The causes of the customer reduction, the margin improvement and the April hire need confirming with their owners. The note shows only the financial effect.
- **Actuals.** With today at 2026‑10‑03, Jan–Sep may already be actuals. Both versions would then be forecasts for periods that have closed. The file does not say which months are actual.