FY2025 Reforecast Accuracy Analysis

Forecast Accuracy Improvement

Key Finding: Accuracy improved dramatically as more actual data became available, with the 9+3 reforecast achieving near-perfect predictions (0.12% MAPE).

Overall Performance

0.12%

Best MAPE (9+3)

1.92%

Initial MAPE (3+9)

16x

Improvement

Version	Revenue	OpEx	Overall
3+9	2.51%	1.32%	1.92%
6+6	1.43%	0.38%	0.91%
9+3	0.16%	0.08%	0.12%

Revenue Forecast Errors by Version

OpEx Forecast Accuracy

Excellent Performance: OpEx forecasts were consistently accurate across all versions, with the 9+3 achieving 0.08% MAPE, indicating strong cost predictability.

Full Year Forecast vs Actual

Key Findings

✓ Progressive Improvement: The systematic improvement from 3+9 (1.92% MAPE) to 6+6 (0.91%) to 9+3 (0.12%) validates our reforecasting process.

✓ OpEx Excellence: Operating expense forecasts were exceptionally accurate even in early reforecasts, suggesting strong internal cost control and predictability (1.32% MAPE at 3+9).

⚠ Summer Revenue Dip: The largest forecast miss was the 6+6 September prediction (15% overforecast), suggesting mid-year seasonal demand patterns weren't fully captured in the H1 forecast.

✓ Q4 Accuracy: Despite relying entirely on forecasted data, Q4 predictions were tight (0.47% MAPE for 9+3), with all versions within ±1.6% by October.

✓ Full Year Precision: The 9+3 reforecast achieved near-perfect annual accuracy: revenue off by $2.8K (0.0%) and OpEx off by $631 (0.0%) on a $13.8B combined base.