I've written the memo to `FY2026_scenario_memo.md`. The numbers come from `scenario_calc.py`, which reads the CSV and recalculates every figure, so you can rerun it if the data changes.

FY2026 operating profit by scenario:

| | Revenue | Operating profit | Margin |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Base | $11.20m | $303k | 2.7% |
| Upside | $11.94m | $501k | 4.2% |
| Downside | $10.44m | $(6)k | (0.1)% |

- **Upside (+$197k):** The two Enterprise customers add $135k and the 2% price increase adds $62k. Costs don't change, so all of the extra gross profit goes straight to operating profit.
- **Downside ($(309)k):** Losing the three watch-list accounts costs $(203)k, the vendor cost increase not being passed on costs $(78)k, and the fuel surcharges cost $(28)k. Any one of these alone still leaves a profit. All three together push the year to a small loss.
- **Room in Base:** Each customer brings in about $68k of gross profit. Base breaks even at 39.5 customers, so it could lose 4.5 customers before making a loss.

Things to check before you send it on:
1. **Timing.** Several assumptions name January or March, but today is 3 October 2026. If FY2026 is the calendar year, those events have already happened and the assumptions should use actual results instead.
2. **Full-year revenue.** The two customers who close in January seem to be counted for a whole year.
3. **No mixed case.** Each scenario changes only its own assumptions. Nothing models winning the Enterprise deals and losing the watch-list accounts in the same year.

I didn't use the close-reconciliation skill in this project because it covers month-end close work and excludes forecasts. I applied its house writing style to the memo.