I wrote the memo to `fy2026_scenario_memo.md`. Base operating income is $303K, a 2.7% margin.

| | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Revenue | $10.44M | $11.20M | $11.94M |
| Operating income | $(6)K | $303K | $501K |

- **Upside:** it adds about $197K. Two Enterprise deals close in January, taking customers from 44 to 46. The January price increase also holds, lifting revenue per customer 2%.
- **Downside:** it costs about $309K and takes the year to breakeven. Losing three credit-watch accounts is the largest piece. The unrecovered March vendor cost increase (75 bps of margin) and higher carrier fuel surcharges add to it.
- **Cost base:** personnel cost is the same in all three cases, and Base margin is thin. That's why the three lost accounts nearly wipe out Base profit.

I computed operating income as customers × revenue per customer × gross margin, less headcount × cost per head and other opex. The memo reports the scenario rationales as the CSV states them. I didn't check them against the pipeline or the credit watch list.

I didn't use the close-reconciliation skill, since it excludes forecasts and management reporting.