I wrote the FY2026 scenario memo to `fy2026_scenario_memo.md`.

Base case operating income is about $303K on $11.2M revenue. The downside is larger than the upside:

| Scenario | Revenue | Operating income | Change vs Base |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Downside | $10.44M | −$6K | −$309K |
| Base | $11.20M | $303K | – |
| Upside | $11.94M | $501K | +$197K |

- **Downside:** Most of the drop comes from losing three customers, plus the 75 bps margin slip from the March vendor cost increase. The fuel surcharge adds a smaller $28K.
- **Upside:** It needs both the two Enterprise wins and the January price increase to hold.

I derived the figures from the CSV drivers using this method:
- Revenue is customers × revenue per customer.
- Gross profit is revenue × gross margin.
- Operating opex is headcount × cost per head + other opex.
- Operating income is gross profit minus operating opex.

The CSV has annual drivers only, so the memo treats the January and March events as full-year effects. In-year phasing would likely make the real impact smaller.

I did not use the close-reconciliation skill, since it covers month-end close work rather than scenario memos.

The memo also lists two open questions:
- Does the Base customer count of 44 already exclude the three watch-list accounts?
- Does the price increase apply to all customers or only to new and renewing ones?