I wrote the memo to `/tmp/spb-out-of-scope-claude-k37uarml/fy2026_scenario_memo.md`. It has a results table, a comparison against Base, the assumptions behind each scenario, and a short set of observations.

I computed operating income as revenue × gross margin, minus headcount × cost per head, minus other opex. The CSV has no explicit formula, so that is my reading of the drivers.

| | Base | Upside | Downside |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Revenue | $11.20M | $11.94M | $10.44M |
| Gross profit | $2.97M | $3.17M | $2.69M |
| Operating income | $303K (2.7%) | $501K (4.2%) | -$6K (-0.1%) |

- **Thin margin:** Costs are essentially fixed. Losing three customers therefore takes Downside to roughly break-even.
- **Downside drivers:** Of the $309K drop in operating income versus Base, about $203K comes from the three lost accounts. The margin slip adds about $78K, and fuel surcharges add $28K.
- **Mitigations:** The memo notes that the Downside includes no cost response, such as a hiring freeze or pass-through pricing.