I've written the forecast change note. FY2026 EBITDA fell from $452K in Prior to $303K in Current, a change of ($149K), or (32.9%). The driver walk adds up exactly to that change.

**What moved EBITDA.** Three of the six drivers changed:

| Driver | Prior | Current | Months changed | EBITDA impact |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Active customers | 46 | 44 | 12 | ($133K) |
| Gross margin | 26.2% | 26.6% | 12 | $39K |
| Headcount | 23.00 | 23.75 | 9 | ($54K) |

Revenue per customer, cost per head and other opex did not change.

- **Fewer active customers drove the drop.** They took revenue down by ($509K), or (4.3%), and EBITDA down by ($133K).
- **Higher gross margin partly offset it**, adding $39K.
- **Higher headcount added to the drop**, at ($54K).

These impacts are measured one driver at a time in a fixed order. They show how much each driver moved EBITDA, not what share of the change each one caused.

**Why the drivers moved isn't in the data.** The file holds the driver values only, not the reasons behind them. So the note doesn't give reasons. Instead it asks each driver's owner which documented assumption supports their change. The assumption register would answer that, and I can review it if you share it.

Files are in `output/`:
- drivers-note.md
- drivers.json