I've written the memo to `output/scenario-memo.md`. The figures come from `output/scenarios.json`, which the scenarios script produced. The script exited cleanly, which means each scenario's driver changes add up exactly to that scenario's EBITDA.

**Headline:** Base EBITDA is $303K. The range runs from a small loss of ($6K) in Downside to $501K in Upside.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base | % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K | 65.1% |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) | (102.0%) |

**What drives the difference** (each driver's effect on EBITDA versus Base):
- **Upside:** two drivers change, both on the revenue side.
  - Active customers go from 44 to 46, adding $135K. The assumption is that two Enterprise proposals in their final stage close in January.
  - Revenue per customer goes from 254,536.10 to 259,626.82, adding $62K. The assumption is that the January price increase holds with no lost volume.
- **Downside:** three drivers change.
  - Active customers go from 44 to 41, a change of ($203K). The assumption is that three accounts on the credit watch list are lost.
  - Gross margin goes from 26.6% to 25.8%, a change of ($78K). The assumption is that a March vendor cost increase isn't passed on to customers.
  - Other opex goes from $946K to $974K, a change of ($28K). The assumption is that carrier fuel surcharges rise.
- **No change:** headcount and cost per head stay the same in every scenario.

**Recommendation in the memo:**
- **Plan to:** Base.
- **Signals:** the January Enterprise deals and the price increase point towards Upside. The credit-watch accounts, the March vendor cost increase and fuel surcharges point towards Downside.
- **Prepare now:** plans to keep the credit-watch accounts, and a decision on whether to pass on the March vendor cost increase.

The source file has 18 rows, and the memo's data notes record its hash, `99353b5defb6`.

The memo gives each driver's effect in a fixed order, so the effects are not shares of the total change.