I wrote the forecast change note to `output/drivers-note.md`. The script's figures are in `output/drivers.json`. The script's walk reconciles to the EBITDA change.

**Headline:** Current EBITDA is $303K against $452K in Prior, a change of ($149K), or (32.9%).

**Walk, in order:**
- **Active customers:** ($133K). This carries the move. Customers fell from 46 to 44 in all 12 months.
- **Gross margin:** $39K. It rose from 26.2% to 26.6% in all 12 months.
- **Headcount:** ($54K). It rose from 23.00 to 23.75 FTE in 9 months.
- **Revenue per customer, Cost per head and Other opex:** $0. None of them changed.

**Why EBITDA moved:** The data shows how much each driver moved EBITDA, not why the driver changed. The note makes no causal claim. The Review section asks the owner of each of the three changed drivers which documented assumption supports the change.

I did not check the assumption register, so I can't say whether any of these changes has documented support.