I wrote the FY2026 scenario memo. Every figure in it comes from the script output. The script ran cleanly, and each scenario's driver-by-driver walk from Base adds up to that scenario's EBITDA.

Base EBITDA is $303K, with a range from ($6K) in Downside to $501K in Upside.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) |

**What drives the difference:**
- **Upside:**
  - Active customers go from 44 to 46 as two Enterprise proposals close in January, worth $135K.
  - A January price increase that holds adds $62K.
- **Downside:**
  - Losing three accounts on the credit watch list takes customers from 44 to 41, costing ($203K).
  - A March vendor cost increase that isn't passed through lowers gross margin from 26.6% to 25.8%, costing ($78K).
  - Higher carrier fuel surcharges raise other opex from $946K to $974K, costing ($28K).
- **Unchanged:** Headcount and cost per head stay the same in all three scenarios.

The recommendation is to plan to Base. It lists the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside. It also lists three things to prepare now: a pass-through plan for the vendor increase, a collections review of the watch-list accounts, and a fuel surcharge recovery option. Because the Downside lands below break-even, those steps protect break-even.

Files are in /tmp/spb-scenario-memo-fy26-claude-s7f7xw3o/output:
- scenario-memo.md
- scenarios.json