I wrote the FY2026 scenario memo. Base EBITDA is $303K, with a range from ($6K) in Downside to $501K in Upside. The script's check that each scenario's driver changes add up to its EBITDA passed for all three cases.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) |

**What drives the difference**
- **Upside:** Two Enterprise proposals in final stage close in January, taking Active customers from 44 to 46, worth $135K. The January price increase holds with no volume loss, worth $62K.
- **Downside:** Losing three accounts on the credit watch list takes Active customers from 44 to 41, costing ($203K). A March vendor cost increase that is not passed through lowers Gross margin from 26.6% to 25.8%, costing ($78K). Higher carrier fuel surcharges raise Other opex from $946K to $974K, costing ($28K).
- **Unchanged:** Headcount and Cost per head are the same in all three cases.

The memo recommends planning to Base and lists the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside. It also names two things to prepare now: a pass-through plan for the vendor cost increase and a collections plan for the three watch-list accounts.

Every figure in the memo is copied from the script's output, and none are calculated by hand. The data note cites `scenarios_fy2026.csv`, 18 rows.

Files are in `output/`:
- `scenario-memo.md`
- `scenarios.json`