I wrote the FY2026 scenario memo. The script ran cleanly, and every scenario's driver-by-driver walk adds up to its EBITDA.

**Scenarios**

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K (65.1%) |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) |

**What drives the difference**
- **Upside:**
  - Active customers go from 44 to 46, because two Enterprise proposals close in January. That adds $135K.
  - Revenue per customer rises because the January price increase holds with no volume loss. That adds $62K.
- **Downside:**
  - Active customers fall from 44 to 41, because three credit-watch accounts are lost. That costs ($203K).
  - Gross margin falls from 26.6% to 25.8%, because a March vendor cost increase is not passed through. That costs ($78K).
  - Carrier fuel surcharges push other opex up from $946K to $974K. That costs ($28K).
- Headcount and cost per head don't change in either case.

**Recommendation in the memo:** plan to Base. The memo names the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside, and the decisions to prepare now. Downside is the only case below zero EBITDA.

The memo gives no probabilities. Every figure is copied from the script output.

Files are in `output/`:
- `scenario-memo.md`
- `scenarios.json`