## EBITDA Driver Walk for FY2026

I've analyzed the forecast change between Prior and Current versions. **EBITDA fell $149K (32.9%)** from $452K to $303K, driven by three key changes:

**The drivers:**

1. **Active customers declined by 2** (46 → 44 across all 12 months) — this was the biggest headwind, dragging EBITDA down by $133K

2. **Gross margin improved by 40 basis points** (26.2% → 26.6% year-round) — this partially offset the decline, adding back $39K

3. **Headcount increased by 0.75 FTE** over 9 months, raising operating costs and cutting EBITDA by $54K

**Net effect:** The customer loss and headcount increase more than offset the margin improvement, resulting in the $149K decline.

The detailed change note is at `output/drivers-note.md` with the full walk table, all three drivers, and questions about the assumptions supporting each change.