Current FY2026 EBITDA is $303K, down from $452K in Prior. That's a change of ($149K), or (32.9%). The driver-by-driver walk adds up exactly to that change.

| Step | Amount |
| --- | --- |
| Prior EBITDA | $452K |
| Active customers | ($133K) |
| Revenue per customer | $0 |
| Gross margin | $39K |
| Headcount | ($54K) |
| Cost per head | $0 |
| Other opex | $0 |
| Current EBITDA | $303K |

- **Active customers** caused most of the drop. The forecast moved from 46 to 44 customers in all 12 months, which cut revenue by ($509K) and EBITDA by ($133K).
- **Gross margin** partly offset it. It rose from 26.2% to 26.6% in all 12 months, adding $39K.
- **Headcount** went from 23.00 to 23.75 in 9 of the 12 months, which cost ($54K).
- The other three drivers (revenue per customer, cost per head and other opex) did not change.

Each driver's amount depends on the order the drivers are moved in, which is fixed so walks can be compared across versions. So these amounts aren't each driver's "share" of the change. The data shows how much each driver moved but not why. The note asks each driver's owner which documented assumption supports the change.

Files are in `output/`:
- drivers-note.md
- drivers.json