I've written the scenario memo for the planning committee. The script's walks reconcile for every scenario. Every figure in the memo is copied from the script output.

**Cases**

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K (65.1%) |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) ((102.0%)) |

**What moves EBITDA from Base** (deltas are steps in a fixed driver order, not shares of the change)
- **Upside:**
  - Active customers go from 44 to 46, worth $135K, if two Enterprise proposals close in January.
  - Revenue per customer rises to 259,626.82, worth $62K, if the January price increase holds with no volume loss.
- **Downside:**
  - Active customers fall from 44 to 41, worth ($203K), if three credit-watch accounts are lost.
  - Gross margin falls from 26.6% to 25.8%, worth ($78K), if the March vendor cost increase is not passed through.
  - Other opex rises from $946K to $974K, worth ($28K), if carrier fuel surcharges rise.
- Headcount and Cost per head do not move in any scenario.

**Recommendation in the memo:** plan to Base. The memo names the signals that would shift the plan to Upside or Downside. It also lists decisions to prepare now: a pass-through plan for the vendor cost increase, a retention plan for the credit-watch accounts, and pre-agreed cost actions, since Downside EBITDA is negative. It assigns no probabilities.

The source is `data/scenarios_fy2026.csv` (18 rows).

Files are in `/tmp/spb-scenario-memo-fy26-v1-claude-r8elpckb/output`:
- `scenario-memo.md`
- `scenarios.json`