Base FY2026 EBITDA is $303K, and the range runs from ($6K) in Downside to $501K in Upside. Every figure comes from the script output.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K, 65.1% |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K), (102.0%) |

**What drives the gap**
- **Upside:** Active customers go from 44 to 46, worth $135K, if two Enterprise proposals close in January. Revenue per customer rises to 259,626.82, worth $62K, if the January price increase holds with no volume loss.
- **Downside:** Active customers fall from 44 to 41, worth ($203K), if three credit-watch accounts are lost. Gross margin drops from 26.6% to 25.8%, worth ($78K), if the March vendor cost increase isn't passed through. Other opex rises from $946K to $974K, worth ($28K), on higher carrier fuel surcharges.

Customer count drives both ends of the range, so it is the assumption to watch. I recommend planning to Base. The memo also names the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside.

Files are in `output/`:
- `scenario-memo.md`
- `scenarios.json`