I've written the memo to `fy2026_scenario_memo.md`. The Base case gives FY2026 operating income of about $303K, a margin of 2.7%.

| | Revenue | Operating income | Change vs Base | Margin |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Base | $11.20M | $303K | — | 2.7% |
| Upside | $11.94M | $501K | +$197K | 4.2% |
| Downside | $10.44M | –$6K | –$309K | –0.1% |

- **Upside (+$197K):** two Enterprise deals closing adds $135K, and the 2% price increase adds $62K.
- **Downside (–$309K):** losing the three credit-watch accounts costs $203K, the margin squeeze costs $78K, and fuel surcharges cost $28K.
- **The downside is bigger than the upside:** about $1.57 lost for every $1.00 gained. Each customer is worth about $68K of operating income, so losing five customers with nothing else changing would put the year into a loss.

Operating income is gross profit minus staff costs (headcount × cost per head) minus other costs. The memo includes a table for each scenario showing what each change contributes, and those parts add up exactly to the totals.

**Decision for you:** the file gives one figure for the whole year, but the changes are tied to January and March. I applied each one for the full year. If FY2026 started before January, or some of these events are already in the actuals, the real impacts would be smaller. Confirming the fiscal year dates would settle this.

The memo also notes:
- The price increase is assumed not to lose any customers.
- The three downside events are combined in one scenario.
- The scenarios have no probabilities attached, so there's no expected value.