I wrote the memo to `fy2026_scenario_memo.md`.

Operating income by scenario (revenue = customers × revenue per customer, less cost of sales, labor and other opex):

| Scenario | Revenue | Operating income | Operating margin |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Base | $11.20M | $303K | 2.7% |
| Upside | $11.94M | $501K | 4.2% |
| Downside | $10.44M | −$6K | −0.1% |

The Downside is roughly break-even. Most of that comes from losing three customers; the margin slip and the higher fuel surcharges add the rest.

The CSV has annual drivers only, so the January and March timing in the basis notes isn't phased in. Each driver is applied for the full year. I also didn't probability-weight the scenarios, since the file gives no likelihoods.