I wrote the memo to `fy2026_scenario_memo.md`. It builds each scenario from the CSV drivers. Operating income is gross profit minus personnel and other opex, with no depreciation, interest or tax because the CSV has none.

| | Base | Upside | Downside |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Revenue | $11.20M | $11.94M | $10.44M |
| Gross profit | $2.97M | $3.17M | $2.69M |
| Operating income | $303K (2.7%) | $501K (4.2%) | –$6K (–0.1%) |

- **Thin base margin:** Base operating income is only 2.7% of revenue, so small driver moves swing profit a lot.
- **Downside is breakeven:** Lost customers drive most of the gap to Base. The 75 bps margin slip and the $28K fuel-surcharge increase add to it.
- **Upside drop-through:** Upside revenue reaches operating income at about 27%, which is the gross margin. Costs are unchanged from Base in that case.
- **No phasing:** The CSV has full-year drivers only, so the January and March effects are not phased. The memo flags this.