I've written the forecast change note. Current FY2026 EBITDA is $303K, down from $452K in Prior, a change of ($149K), or (32.9%). The walk adds up exactly to that change, so its figures can be reported.

**What changed:** three of the six drivers moved.

| Driver | Prior | Current | Months changed | Effect on EBITDA |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Active customers | 46 | 44 | 12 | ($133K) |
| Gross margin | 26.2% | 26.6% | 12 | $39K |
| Headcount | 23.00 | 23.75 | 9 | ($54K) |

Revenue per customer, cost per head and other opex did not change, so each moved EBITDA by $0.

**Why EBITDA moved:** most of the drop comes from active customers. Fewer customers cut revenue by ($509K), or (4.3%), which took ($133K) off EBITDA. Higher headcount took off another ($54K). The better gross margin added back $39K.

**What the data can't tell us:** it shows how much each driver moved EBITDA, not why the driver changed. The note's Review section asks each driver's owner which documented assumption supports the change. For active customers, it also asks which customers it covers.

These amounts are measured one driver at a time, in a fixed order. They aren't each driver's "share" of the change.

Files are in `output/`:
- `drivers-note.md`
- `drivers.json`