The FY2026 scenario memo is complete. Here's what the analysis shows:

**Base case ($303K EBITDA):** Current plan with 44 customers at $254.5K revenue per customer and 26.6% gross margin.

**Upside case ($501K EBITDA):** Driven by two factors:
- Two enterprise proposals closing in January brings customers to 46 ($135K impact)
- Price increase holds without volume loss ($62K impact)
- This gets EBITDA to $501K, a $197K (65.1%) improvement

**Downside case (($6K) EBITDA):** Three headwinds combine:
- Three credit-watch accounts are lost, dropping to 41 customers (($203K) impact)
- Vendor cost increase in March not passed through, margin falls to 25.8% (($78K) impact)  
- Carrier fuel surcharges rise (($28K) impact)
- Total deterioration of ($309K) swings EBITDA to negative

The memo and underlying calculations are in `output/scenario-memo.md` and `output/scenarios.json`.