I've written the FY2026 scenario memo. The script ran cleanly, and each scenario's driver-by-driver changes add up exactly to its total change from Base.

**Headline:** Base EBITDA is $303K, with a range from ($6K) in Downside to $501K in Upside.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base | % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K | 65.1% |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) | (102.0%) |

**What drives the difference:**
- **Upside** changes only revenue drivers:
  - Active customers go from 44 to 46 because two Enterprise proposals close in January, adding $135K.
  - Revenue per customer goes up because the January price increase holds, adding $62K.
  - Margin and all costs stay at Base.
- **Downside:**
  - Active customers go from 44 to 41 because three credit watch list accounts are lost, a change of ($203K).
  - Gross margin goes from 26.6% to 25.8% because the March vendor cost increase is not passed on, a change of ($78K).
  - Other opex goes from $946K to $974K on higher carrier fuel surcharges, a change of ($28K).
- Headcount and cost per head are the same in every case.

**Recommendation:** plan to Base. Move toward Upside if the January deals sign and the price increase holds. Move toward Downside if a watch-list account is lost or the March vendor increase can't be passed on. Prepare now: retention plans for the watch-list accounts and pass-through terms for the vendor increase.

All figures are copied from the script output, not calculated by hand. The memo assigns no probabilities to the cases.

Files are in `output/`:
- scenario-memo.md
- scenarios.json