I've written the FY2026 scenario memo. Base EBITDA is **$303K**, with a range from **($6K)** in Downside to **$501K** in Upside. The script checked that each scenario's driver-by-driver changes from Base add up exactly to that scenario's EBITDA.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base | % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K | 65.1% |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) | (102.0%) |

**What drives the difference** (each driver is applied in turn, in a fixed order, so these amounts are not shares of the total change):
- **Upside** changes only two drivers, both on revenue:
  - Active customers rise from 44 to 46, adding $135K, if two Enterprise proposals close in January.
  - Revenue per customer rises, adding $62K, if the January price increase holds with no loss of volume.
- **Downside** changes three drivers:
  - Active customers fall from 44 to 41, costing ($203K), if three credit watch list accounts are lost.
  - Gross margin falls from 26.6% to 25.8%, costing ($78K), if the March vendor cost increase isn't passed through.
  - Other opex rises from $946K to $974K, costing ($28K), from higher carrier fuel surcharges.
- Headcount and cost per head are the same in all three cases.

**Recommendation:** plan to Base. The memo lists the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside. It also lists what to prepare now: a plan to pass through the March vendor increase, retention plans for the credit watch list accounts, and a cost response in case Downside becomes likely.

Every figure in the memo is copied exactly from the script's output.

Files are in `output/`:
- scenario-memo.md
- scenarios.json