I've written the FY2026 scenario memo. The script's check passed: for every scenario, Base EBITDA plus the six driver deltas equals that scenario's EBITDA.

Base EBITDA is $303K, with a range from ($6K) in Downside to $501K in Upside.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) |

**What drives the difference**
- **Upside:** Active customers go from 44 to 46, worth $135K, because two Enterprise proposals in final stage close in January. Revenue per customer rises, worth $62K, if the January price increase holds with no volume loss.
- **Downside:** Active customers fall from 44 to 41, worth ($203K), with three credit-watch accounts lost. Gross margin falls from 26.6% to 25.8%, worth ($78K), because the March vendor cost increase is not passed through. Other opex rises to $974K, worth ($28K), on higher carrier fuel surcharges.
- Headcount and Cost per head are unchanged in both cases.

The memo recommends planning to Base. It lists the signals that would move the plan to either case and the decisions to prepare now: a pass-through plan for the March vendor cost increase, action on the three watch-list accounts, and a hiring hold decision.

The memo also notes that deltas follow the model's fixed walk order, so they are not each driver's share of the change.

Files are in /tmp/spb-scenario-memo-fy26-claude-o78td1lt/output:
- scenario-memo.md
- scenarios.json