I wrote the FY2026 scenario memo. The script's walk for each scenario sums back to that scenario's EBITDA.

Base EBITDA is $303K, and the range runs from ($6K) in Downside to $501K in Upside.

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) |

**What drives the difference:**
- **Upside:** Active customers rise from 44 to 46, worth $135K, because two Enterprise proposals close in January. Revenue per customer rises to 259,626.82, worth $62K, if the January price increase holds with no volume loss.
- **Downside:** Active customers fall from 44 to 41, worth ($203K), because three credit-watch accounts are lost. Gross margin falls from 26.6% to 25.8%, worth ($78K), because the March vendor cost increase is not passed through. Other opex rises from $946K to $974K, worth ($28K), on higher carrier fuel surcharges.
- **Unchanged:** Headcount and Cost per head do not move in any scenario.

The deltas depend on the fixed driver order, so they are not each driver's share of the change.

The memo recommends planning to Base. It lists the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside, and the decisions to prepare now, such as a pass-through plan for the March vendor cost.

Files are in `output/`:
- `scenario-memo.md`
- `scenarios.json`