I wrote the FY2026 scenario memo. The script ran cleanly, and every scenario's driver walk adds up to its EBITDA.

**Base EBITDA is $303K, with a range from ($6K) in Downside to $501K in Upside.**

| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | vs Base |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Base | $11.2M | $303K | n/a |
| Upside | $11.9M | $501K | $197K |
| Downside | $10.4M | ($6K) | ($309K) |

**What drives the difference:**
- **Upside:**
  - Active customers rise from 44 to 46 when two Enterprise proposals close in January ($135K).
  - Revenue per customer rises because the January price increase holds ($62K).
- **Downside:**
  - Active customers fall from 44 to 41 if three credit-watch accounts are lost (($203K)).
  - Gross margin falls from 26.6% to 25.8% if the March vendor cost increase isn't passed through (($78K)).
  - Other opex rises from $946K to $974K on higher carrier fuel surcharges (($28K)).
- Headcount and cost per head don't change in either case.

The memo recommends planning to Base. It names the signals that would move the plan to Upside or Downside. It also lists what to prepare now: a vendor cost pass-through plan, a review of the watch-list accounts, and a hiring hold until the January closes are known.

Files are in `/tmp/spb-scenario-memo-fy26-claude-ugir0ppd/output/`:
- `scenario-memo.md`
- `scenarios.json`